The 2011 Der Winner Will Come from a Big 6 Prep Race!
Article by Mark Gingery
When handicapping the most famous horse race in America you need to look no further than where did the horse finish in its last Derby Prep race!
The last 20 Kentucky Derby winners finished no worse than 4th in its last race prior to running in the Kentucky Derby. In fact 16 of the 20 won their last race or finished second. That is an astounding 80%.
All but two of those 20 ran their last race in one of the Big 6 Derby Prep races!
The Big 6 are the Santa Anita Derby, Florida Derby, Wood Memorial, Arkansas Derby, Illinois Derby and the Blue Grass Stakes.
Of the past 20 Kentucky Derby winners, 4 winners each came from the Arkansas Derby, Wood Memorial and Blue Grass Stakes. 3 winners came from the Santa Anita Derby, 2 from the Florida Derby and 1 from the Illinois Derby.
The 4 winners that did not finish 1st or 2nd in the past 20 years all finished 4th!
They were Mine That Bird (2009, 50-1), Giacomo (2005, 50-1), Thunder Gulich (1995, 24-1) and Sea Hero (1993, 13-1). Only Mind That Bird did not race in one of the Big 6 Prep races. As you can see, recent history tells us that if the Derby winner is to be a horse that did not run first or second in his last race, it will be a longshot that probably ran 4th.
No 3rd place runner in his last prep race has won the Roses on the first Saturday in May in the past 20 years. However in the previous 20 years there have been 6 winners.
In those previous 20 years, twelve (60%) Kentucky Derby winners did win their last race prior with only two winners finishing second and none that ran fourth!
In conclusion there is a 75% chance that the 2011 Kentucky Derby winner will have finished 1st or 2nd in his last prep-race.
Based on this history, the top Kentucky Derby contenders this year are Archarcharch and Nehro from the Arkansas Derby; Brilliant Speed and Twinspired from the Blue Grass Stakes; Midnight Interlude and Comma to the Top from the Santa Anita Derby; Toby’s Corner and Arthur’s Tale from the Wood Memorial; Joe Vann and Zoebear from the Illinois Derby and Dialed In and Shackleford from the Florida Derby!
Whichever horse is your pick to win the 2011 Kentucky Derby remember to be sure he fits the Proven Winning Derby Profile!
About the Author
Mark Gingery is a 30 plus year horse racing handicapping veteran. Specializes in the Kentucky Derby, Preakness Stakes, Belmont Stakes and the Breeders’ Cup World Championship races.
Has written the Proven Winning Derby Profile and the Proven Winning Breeders’ Cup Profiles based on the past 27 years of the races.
For more information on his handicapping services go here
|